Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Teams to Watch on Draft Day


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With the 1st round of the draft kicking off this Thursday, each team’s General Manager is starting to feel the pressure of making that first pick. The pick that could potentially set the team up for a decade of success or the less fortunate outcome of setting the team back several years. That is the beauty of the draft and what makes it so enjoyable to watch for us fans! It is such an imperfect science that you are bound to make a mistake and reach on kid that all signs point to him being a huge success and for whatever reason he’s out of the league 3 years later. On the other hand, just as often you see a guy that was a relative no name coming out college all the sudden turn into a house hold one at the next level. With that being said, there are a handful of teams going into Thursday night that I am watching closely to see which direction they go for a multitude of reasons!

      1. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off arguably the most disappointing season of all 32 teams in 2018. They bolster a defense that is as star studded as we have seen since the 2012 Seahawks and an offense that has a Pro Bowl QB in Kirk Cousins, a top 3 WR duo in the NFL and an emerging young Dalvin Cook at RB. Going into Thursday night, there should only be 2 words on Rick Speilman’s mind. Offensive Line, Offensive Line and Offensive Line. If they draft anything but Offensive Line the Viking fanbase should march out to Eagan and demand answers. I know some people out there are thinking that they potentially could go DL because of the departure of Sheldon Richardson but in a defense heavy draft the value you’ll get from a mid-round D-Lineman more than likely will outweigh that of a mid-round O-Lineman. Also, the defense in Minnesota is ready to win right now, the offensive line is not.

Projected Pick: Garrett Bradburry C, NCST
With the Vikings holding the 18th overall pick, chances are slim that a top tackle like Jonah Williams or Jawaan Taylor are still on the board which should make the Vikings choice easy. Garrett Bradburry IMO is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but Centers aren’t valued like Tackles and Guards so he should be available later in the 1st round. In picking Bradburry you can move Elflein to Guard where he spent the majority of college career and you get a perennial pro-bowler at Center. If the Vikings offensive line plays even slightly above average, Minnesota is a legitimate Super Bowl contender going into 2019.

           2. Oakland Raiders
Viva Las Vegas!!! Of all the personnel changes the Raiders made this off-season, I think the best pick up they made was bringing in General Manager, Mike Mayock. In Mayock you get a guy that knows Jon Gruden extremely well and I think for the first time in a long time you have a Head Coach and GM in Oakland that have a shared vision for the organization. With the trade of Khalil Mack the Raiders picked up an additional two 1st rounders in up coming draft so they have plenty of picks to work with. The addition of Antonio Brown brings some much-needed fire power to the offense and should allow Mayock and Gruden to go to work on the defensive side of the ball in a draft that has potential stars all over the place.

Project Picks: (4) Josh Allen Edge, UK (24) Deandre Baker CB, UGA (27) Josh Jacobs RB, Bama
I think Josh Allen brings a much-needed edge pass rusher to help replace some of that production they lost when they traded Mack. In a division that forces you to face Phil Rivers and Patrick Mahomes twice a year its nice to get pressure on the QB. It’s also nice to be able to cover WR’s down the field. The addition of Baker would give the Raiders a promising young duo in the secondary with Gareon Conley being the counterpart. Lastly, Josh Jacobs brings explosiveness to a backfield that as of right now has Isaiah Crowell listed as RB1. I the Raiders are in a position where all decisions are being made with one thing in mind. Las Vegas. They are working to piece together a team that is as flashy as the Vegas Strip and the first piece of that puzzle was AB. I look to see that trend continue which ultimately leaves Derek Carr playing in something other than Black and Silver.

3. New York Jets
The Jets come into the new season with a new Head Coach, new ugly uniforms, and a new All-Pro Running Back. Le’veon Bell is exactly was the Jets needed offensively as he immediately takes pressure off of sophomore QB Sam Darnold who struggle a little bit in his rookie campaign. The Jets also went out and picked up Quincy Enunwa to pair with Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder to form a very solid WR corp that could end up being an underrated group in the NFL if Darnold progresses the way we expect him to. Defensively, the Jets made a huge splash by signing LB CJ Mosley to add to a defense that already features Jamaal Adams and Leonard Williams. With that being said, I think the statement was made that Mike Maccagnan is not satisfied on Defense after losing out on Anthony Barr who got cold feet and ultimately backed out of the verbal agreement with the Jets to resign with the Vikings so that’s where I look for them to target.

Projected Pick: (3) Quinnen Williams DL, Bama
In a draft that is loaded with defensive talent, Williams is the cream of the crop. Williams was an absolute monster during his RS Sophomore year for Nick Saban’s Alabama team and he would give the Jets an immediate boost in the interior defensive line. Week 1 Quinnen Williams would help solidify a run defense that has been lacking the past few years while also providing a much-needed interior pass rush presence. Maybe most importantly, the addition of Quinnen Williams would free up free agent signee Cj Mosley to do what they paid him handsomely to do; go tackle the guy with the ball. With an aging Tom Brady and Gronk retiring, this year could mark a changing of the tides in the AFC East and I think the Jet’s have the fire power to potentially take the throne.

      4. Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Vikings had the most disappointing 2018 season, the Steelers have had the most disappointing 2019 off season. In the past 3 months the Steelers have lost over 17,000 yards of total offense, over 100 career touchdowns and 6x 1st team All Pro Awards with the departures of Le’veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Many people are claiming this is addition by subtraction but the subtraction of that much production over the last 5+ years leaves the Steelers in a position where they better start doing some addition somewhere before Big Ben runs out of time. Offensively I think the Steelers are still good enough to win. With JuJu and James Connor taking the reins from Bell and Brown I think the Steelers will stay competitive as long as the OL, that has been as good as any the past few years, stays healthy. Where the Steelers need to get better in a hurry is at Linebacker and Defensive back. The loss of Ryan Shazier to a spinal injury has left a void in the middle of the defense that is yet to be filled. Vinny Williams had very good season last year in that spot but he needs help and its clear that the help needed is not located on the roster currently. Also, all signs point to former 1st rounder Artie Burns being a bust so the Steelers could also go that route and continue to plug and play guys at LB until they can find a long-term solution. I personally think the latter is the way the Steelers go by selecting a DB in the 1st round and if they find their guy and can piece together a formidable defense the Steelers could contend in the AFC.

Project Pick: Byron Murphy CB, Wash
In division that just added Odell Beckham Jr., you better be able to cover the pass. The Steelers have been top 5 in sacks the past 2 years but in the bottom 3rd in interceptions. They need playmakers on the back end and Byron Murphy fits the bill. Murphy has my favorite quality in a defensive player; he finds the ball. If you are ever looking for him on film, find the ball because I guarantee you that’s where he is. If Bryon Murphy can show up and be a solid player for the Steelers the back half of the season then they could be a team to watch going into the post season.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Dominance vs Longevity

A couple weeks ago the NFL lost one of the best Tight Ends of all time, Rob Gronkowski. In the ensuing days and weeks there were constant debates on the topic "Is Gronk the GOAT"? Typically this bar stool argument comes down to two names; Rob Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez. While I was pondering this topic myself, I couldn't stop thinking "how could anyone think Tony Gonzalez is better than Gronk" then it hit me. Too many times we mistake longevity for dominance. Now before I dive into the numbers I want to make it known that TG is a great player and very deserving of all the awards coming his way but......Gronk is better.

 When I think of the best, I think of dominance. Sure, longevity and big career numbers get you on all decade teams and in the Hall of Fame but they shouldn't get you the crown for best ever. If that were the case Karl Malone would be know as the greatest of all time in the NBA. So lets look at the dominance of each of these guys. To do so I am going to focus on Rob Gronkowski's 4 (2011, 2014, 2015, 2017) and Tony Gonazalez's 6 (1999-2001, 2003, 2008, 2012) All-Pro seasons and plethora of stats from those seasons and the post season. 

Rob Gronkowski: 8 Seasons 4 1st team All-Pro's 
2011 - Gronk played in all 16 games in his sophomore campaign and put up the most dominant season in NFL history from the TE position. Gronk was TB12's target 124 times and came down with the ball 90 times (72.5%) for 1327 yards (14.7 Y/C) and 17 TD's. 
2014 - Rob earned his second 1st team All-Pro on his way hoisting his first of 3 Lombardi Trophies. During this season he was targeted 131 times with 82 catches (62.6%) for 1124 yards (13.7 Y/C) and 12 TD's in 15 games.
2015 - In his 3rd All-Pro season he put up his 3rd 1000 yard 10+ TD season. His final stat line was 120 targets with 72 catches (60.0) for 1176 (16.3 Y/C) yards and 11 TD's in 15 games. 
2017 - Gronk was awarded his final All-Pro honor in route to his 2nd World Championship. In 14 regular season games he was targeted 105 times and in true Gronk fashion he came away with 69 catches (65.7%) for 1084 yards (15.7 Y/C) and 8 TD's. 
Playoffs - 16 games with 130 targets for 81 catches for 1163 yards and 12 TD's.

Tony Gonzalez: 17 Seasons 6 1st team All-Pro's
1999 - In TG's 3rd year he captured his 1st of 3 straight All-Pro nods. During this season Tony was targeted 104 times for 76 receptions (73.1%) and 849 yards (11.2 Y/C) while hauling 11 TD's in 15 games.
2000 - During his second straight All-Pro season Gonzalez was targeted 150 times for 93 catches (62.0%) for 1203 yards (12.9 Y/C) and 9 TD's. 
2001 - For the 3rd year in a row Gonzalez was awarded 1st team All-Pro with 118 targets for 73 catches (61.9%) and 917 yards (12.6 Y/C) and 6 TD's
2003 - In his 4th All-Pro campaign Gonzalez had 71 catches on 106 targets (67.0%) for 916 yards (12.9 Y/C) and 10 TD's
2008 - After a 4 year break TG found himself back on top of the TE world. In his 11th season he gained his 5th All-Pro behind 155 targets for 96 catches (61.9%) and 1058 yards (11 Y/C) with 10 TD's.
2012 - In his final All-Pro Season TG put up some very solid numbers given where he was in his career. He had 93 catches on 124 targets (75%) for 930 yards (10.0 Y/C) and 8 TD's. 
Playoffs - 7 games with 41 targets and 30 receptions (73.2%) for 286 yards (9.5 Y/C) and 4 TD's

Now I know that is a crazy amount of information to take in so let me summarize it for you. In 4 seasons Gronkowski had 4,711 yards for 53 TD's coming to an average of 1178 yards a season and 13.25 TD's. Meanwhile Gonzalez in 6 seasons racked up 5873 yards and 44 TD's for an average of 979 yards and 7.3 TD's. Gonzalez's numbers are good don't get me wrong but Gronkowski's numbers would compete against Hall of Fame WR's let alone TE's. Now I know the playoffs aspect was kicking a man while hes down but it had to be included because "legends are born in the postseason." Blocking is another aspect that could be involved in this discussion but there is no quantifiable number to attach to blocking so I'll just leave it at...Tony Gonzalez was a liability in the run game while Gronkowski was who the Patriots ran behind on 3rd down in an AFC championship game with the season on the line.  

Both of these guys are more than deserving of being know as all time greats and getting their busts in Canton. However, I think that when you look at these two guys, you have one who performed at a high level for a very long time and you have another guy who in 8 season was the most dominant tight end of the NFL had ever seen.